Domain-Specific LLMs Improve Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction, Probing Matches Fine-Tuning
Researchers evaluated BioBERT and BioMistral for phase-level clinical trial outcome prediction on the TOP benchmark, converting trial registrations into text from ten ClinicalTrials.gov fields. All four language-model variants outperformed the structured HINT baseline in ROC-AUC and PR-AUC, with relative PR-AUC gains of 10-20%. Probing with frozen embeddings performed comparably to fine-tuning, suggesting a computationally cheaper alternative for this task.