PROMOTE: Anytime-Valid Promotion Tests for Adaptive Financial Research Agents
The paper introduces PROMOTE, a protocol for adaptive financial research agents that assigns predictable testing wealth to each candidate trading rule and accumulates a cost-aware e-process to control false promotions under indefinite monitoring. It provides a weighted Ville argument bounding the probability of promoting a rule with nonpositive conditional mean, and validates the method via retrospective pseudo-out-of-sample and exact mean-zero experiments. Results show PROMOTE eliminates false family crossings in null paths and maintains target power under injected alternatives.