Microsoft Research ML pipeline forecasts space-weather GIC risk for 66,935 US substations
Microsoft Research describes an end-to-end machine learning pipeline that forecasts geomagnetically induced current (GIC) risk at 66,935 continental U.S. substations using L1 solar-wind observations. It forecasts AE and Dst indices, then uses a gradient-boosting model with latitude, geology, and conductivity data to estimate dB/dt and derive location-specific risk 30-60 minutes ahead. During 2020-2026 evaluation, it detected 76.5% of major events (≥10 nT/min) and 81.2% of severe events (≥20 nT/m