Neighborhood Elites: Quality-Diversity Search for Uncertainty Quantification in Question Answering

arXiv:2610.40278v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable, yet they produce wrong answers indistinguishable from correct ones. In question answering (QA), such an error propagates unnoticed into downstream tasks. Perturbation-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) addresses this by probing a model over a set of input rewrites and reading uncertainty from how much its predictions vary. Yet this set is usually built generically, by free paraphrasing, token-level perturbation, or adversarial search. Such rewrites leave two things uncontrolled that matter in QA: what kind of change is made to the context, and how explicitly the context supports the answer. When neither is controlled, the composition of the set is determined by the generator rather than by design, and the estimate inherits whatever that generator happens to produce. Quality-diversity (QD) search is built to cover a predefined exploration space, so we recast input perturbation as a QD problem and propose \emph{neighborhood elites (NE)}, a neighborhood constructor that spreads answer-preserving rewrites across two axes, the kind of edit and the explicitness of support. We compare NE against three other neighborhood constructors, holding the editor, QA model, uncertainty measure and search objective fixed, and against three scores read from the original context. Across five extractive-QA datasets and five instruction-tuned LLMs, NE improves failure detection against every other constructor in at least 24 of the 25 dataset-model pairs, reaching 0.726 AUROC and 0.211 AUPRC lift over the base rate. Additionally, NE detects failure better than semantic entropy computed over decoder samples, by 0.074 AUROC and 0.062 AUPRC lift, and this advantage widens as the neighborhood grows.