Research
Reproduction Study Finds Risk-Controlled Throughput Forecasting Fails Under Temporal Splits and Low Budgets
A reproduction of the BG-CFQS method for risk-budgeted LEO satellite throughput forecasting shows that its risk guarantee holds only under random calibration splits, not the contiguous temporal splits seen in deployment. The method cannot serve risk budgets below 0.15, overshooting by up to 3.7x at the tightest budget. Online calibration tracks budgets well, but group-conditional recalibration often underperforms simple conditioning.
risk-controlled forecastingLEO satellite networksconformal prediction